Creating supply chain resiliency through more precise demand prediction.

An accurate demand prediction is one of the most critical elements of a resilient supply chain. When catastrophic events occur that can cause a massive shift in consumer behavior, retailers of all shapes and sizes are suddenly scrambling to adjust their forecasts. With the pandemic potentially forcing new or extended “shelter in place” orders, people will continue turning to new methods of receiving groceries, clothing, and other consumer products.

As we see different parts of the country and globe beginning to reopen, it’s possible many of these shopping behaviors may stick as people opt for less dining out due to new grocery shopping trends: pantry loading, working remotely, willingness to try private label, and a shift to new fulfillment channels.

As inventory levels drastically fluctuate, many shoppers have settled for what they (or their personalized shopper) can find, ultimately throwing brand loyalty out the window for cheaper brands, private labels, or store brands. Consumers have opted for new buying channels as well, ordering online and having groceries delivered. If the ease of these channels stick, it’s possible to see a long-term shift.

Dear frustrated retailer:

Are you responsible for the success of your company’s retail business from sales, margin, and inventory levels to overall customer satisfaction? If so, what happens when a valuable customer tries to make a purchase from one of your stores or online but is disappointed when there is no inventory? Odds are great you won’t get them back. Out of stocks are a huge problem for your financial bottom line.

What happens when you have excess inventory in the wrong products, wrong locations, or at the wrong time, leading to disappointed customers? You might not be back. Slow moving, stagnant inventory stranded in various locations throughout your supply chain is a tremendous problem for your financial bottom line—and your career.

Your greatest challenge is balancing the need to satisfy customers with your business’ profitability and
growth. Customer loyalty is finicky. They demand inventory when they want it, where they want, and
have a myriad of options on their smartphone to change brands, retailers, locations, and delivery
method. In this new age of retail, you can’t afford to lose a customer to your competition. At the same
time, you can’t load up every location/channel with an infinite amount of inventory in hopes of satisfying every customer’s purchase

The difference between customer and company expectations is only becoming more pronounced in the age of e-commerce. For example, 55% of shoppers say their shopping experiences are somewhat disconnected as they switch between the online and in-store experience.  Another study reports that 22% of North American retailers consider omnichannel experiences a top priority.  That means that customers are noticing the disconnect, but retailers are failing to respond.

As it heads into the holidays and 2020, Target is set up win shoppers over through its ongoing investments and initiatives. The retailer said it now expects full-year adjusted profit of $6.25 to $6.45 per share, up from its prior range of $5.90 to $6.20 per share.

"Our third quarter results are further proof of the durability of our strategy, as we’re seeing industry-leading strength across multiple metrics, from the top line to the bottom line,” said Target’s chairman and CEO Brian Cornell. “Looking ahead, we have ushered in the holiday season with an unwavering commitment to guest service that complements our highly differentiated, value-driven assortment, our exceptional in-store shopping experience as well as an unmatched suite of easy and convenient fulfillment options.”

The biggest mall owner in the U.S., Simon Property Group, is teaming with online shopping site Rue La La’s parent company to launch a new kind of website for people looking for deals.

The real estate company announced Wednesday it’s partnering with Rue Gilt Groupe, which is backed by Michael Rubin, CEO of Fanatics’ parent company Kynetic, to create a new e-commerce business for discount shopping.

Simon has been testing the website “ShopPremiumOutlets.com” since March, building on its premium outlet centers business. The mall owner operates dozens of premium outlet centers nationwide and a handful overseas. It’s been working with certain retailers at those centers — which include Woodbury Common Premium Outlets in New York — to test selling merchandise together on this site. It says it has signed on more than 2,000 designers, and has about 300,000 products.

In this episode we talk with Morin Sarenio of CGTrader, a company of 2-million designers that’s providing retailers with immersive augmented reality that lets customers try products online before they buy them. That means better customer experience, fewer returns, and major savings on reverse logistics.

A recent report valued the rental subscription market at around 1 billion dollars in 2018 and forecast it grows more than 20 percent a year, reaching 2.5 billion dollars by 2023. This trend isn’t lost on traditional retailers: over the last year everyone in the industry seems to be launching their own clothing rental service.

Recent research from GlobalData confirms the explosive growth of clothing rental and / or subscription services: it’s expected to reach 2.5 billion dollars value by 2023, prompting brands such as Banana Republic, Macy’s, Urban Outfitters, Trunk Club or J.C. Penney to announce their own apparel rental services.

I read a recent article in Forbes that talked about upheaval in the shopping mall industry. There's a link to it at the end of my commentary and I would really appreciate hearing your thoughts on it as well. Here are mine:

“HURRY AND DIE MALLS."

Your days are over. People want a social experience, not products. Mark-downs and sales clerks. As we all know, the hype, “Retail is Dead” is just that, hype. Consider the following. 87% of consumer retail is transacted in brick & mortar, physical stores. Yes, you heard me…87%. In fact, a recent NRF report stated retail sales, in stores, are up 4.9%. NOT e/comm, by true shopping and social interaction.

The net is, if you fear Amazon will put you out of business, shame on you! You “owned” your customers for decades, but did you do anything to earn their loyalty except showcase your products? 30% of my personal shopping is on-line. Mostly under $50 commodities. 70% is spent with retailers who invest in their employees training & wages, innovative products, and exceptional customer service, both pre and post sale. Malls are (I hate this word), “transforming” into social town centers with entertainment (movies, concerts, festivals), attractions (claiming walls, work-out centers, VR and the like), hard goods (driver training hosted by auto manufacturers, cooking classes hosted by appliance manufacturers and the like) and most of all, a place to stop texting and start socializing”. Mall dead? Yes, while town centers are thriving!”

To date, retailers have been cautious with live product broadcasts, but a wealth of opportunity exists to connect with customers, build their brands, and significantly increase sales with authentic video content. From combining influencers with real life people trying products to gamification and interactive broadcasting, brands should be looking to authentic video content as they move into the future of retail. In this episode of Reinventing Retail, we chat with Dave Dabbah of Agora.io, an API platform that’s bringing peer-to-peer video to retailers and fashion brands.

This podcast will look at the future of how order management will evolve from simply executing orders to truly optimizing how to best serve your customer. Listen as Guy Courtin and Tim Nelson discuss what to anticipate with the evolution of order management: next generation optimization rather than simply execution of orders. The cost to serve a customer will become more important than simply the cost to fulfill.